Air Asia flight QZ8501 disappeared yesterday. Search is still on-going but it's expected to have broken into pieces and fallen down to the deep ocean. Obviously a very sad incident which unfortunately steams up the conspiracy theories again (Air Asia is also a Malaysian company like Malaysia Airlines, although this flight was operated by it's Indonesian daughter company between Indonesia and Singapore) and general fears for flying.
What thrills me, are the over-heated reactions of way too many. A reasonable reaction could be "such a sad day, thoughts with the victims and relatives" or "Malaysia truly is having a horrid aviation year". But what do we get?
In Facebook, the first comment I saw on the QZ8501 accident was "oh my god I have 5 flights booked with Air Asia for 2015, so scared now!". Second was "My friend is flying tomorrow from Indonesia to Vietnam, so scared for her!".
I flipped. Admit, I have a short temper sometimes but come on guys. For real?
I checked some statistics. There are approximately 30 million commercial flights annually. Aviation accident rate, which is the number of annual accidents divided by annual number of departures globally, was in 2013 0.24 out of 1 million departures. Meaning less than 1 accident for every 1 million flights. In brief, one have to have the worst luck ever to die in an airplane accident. Possible for sure, but extremely rare.
I bet it's more likely to choke on one's lunch or fall and lethally hit one's head than to die in an airplane accident. For these I don't have statistics to back up my gut feeling but what I can find are statistics for traffic accidents. An obvious choice in Vietnam. According to World Life Expectancy, the death rate for road traffic accidents in Vietnam is 26 per 100,000.
So let's summarize this. Aviation accident rate globally is 0.24 out of 1 million departures. In Vietnam, per 100,000 road traffic accidents, there are 26 death cases. I can't do probability maths but it's clear to see where the risks lie. Not even counting all the health relevant issues etc.
So this person, living in Vietnam, is seriously scared to take 5 Air Asia flights within a year? Give me a break. I'll keep flying, with Air Asia just as well as with other airlines. But will remain extra cautious when driving to the airport - that's the most dangerous part of any trip.
What thrills me, are the over-heated reactions of way too many. A reasonable reaction could be "such a sad day, thoughts with the victims and relatives" or "Malaysia truly is having a horrid aviation year". But what do we get?
In Facebook, the first comment I saw on the QZ8501 accident was "oh my god I have 5 flights booked with Air Asia for 2015, so scared now!". Second was "My friend is flying tomorrow from Indonesia to Vietnam, so scared for her!".
I flipped. Admit, I have a short temper sometimes but come on guys. For real?
I checked some statistics. There are approximately 30 million commercial flights annually. Aviation accident rate, which is the number of annual accidents divided by annual number of departures globally, was in 2013 0.24 out of 1 million departures. Meaning less than 1 accident for every 1 million flights. In brief, one have to have the worst luck ever to die in an airplane accident. Possible for sure, but extremely rare.
I bet it's more likely to choke on one's lunch or fall and lethally hit one's head than to die in an airplane accident. For these I don't have statistics to back up my gut feeling but what I can find are statistics for traffic accidents. An obvious choice in Vietnam. According to World Life Expectancy, the death rate for road traffic accidents in Vietnam is 26 per 100,000.
So let's summarize this. Aviation accident rate globally is 0.24 out of 1 million departures. In Vietnam, per 100,000 road traffic accidents, there are 26 death cases. I can't do probability maths but it's clear to see where the risks lie. Not even counting all the health relevant issues etc.
So this person, living in Vietnam, is seriously scared to take 5 Air Asia flights within a year? Give me a break. I'll keep flying, with Air Asia just as well as with other airlines. But will remain extra cautious when driving to the airport - that's the most dangerous part of any trip.
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